No Winner or Loser in an Arms Race

Nuclear Weapons Test, Nuclear Weapon

It is a race right? So there may be a winner and loser right? Well, not so fast. The country who spends the most may win, or they might not, the nation that is most efficient in their expenditures has a better advantage but may have a smaller economy to tax to take action? Any nation who enters into an arms race takes the expense to its society, economy and civilization. Any nation under threat that doesn’t could lose their civilization if it goes to war, and also loses its ability to do hardcore international negotiations, trade prices, etc. which can hurt its treasury and financial vitality. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Okay so, let us talk.

There was an interesting article from the Garrett Hardin Society Newsletter titled;”The Tragedy of the Commons” by Garrett Hardin, 1968 which stated:

It is our considered professional judgment that this dilemma has no technical solution. If the great powers continue to search for solutions in the area of science and technology only, the end result is to worsen the situation.”

These are all good things; and as I write articles and come up with new military concepts, it’s occurred to me that as we develop new and more sophisticated weapons our enemies or perhaps allies now future enemies later also work to garner those improvements and better them. The RAND Corp had lots of papers on this, many quite good, and had played out war-game scenarios, where everyone loses, or even if you win, you actually lose or have such heavy losses it isn’t worth it. When a civilization is destroyed, everybody wins. The people who live there, and the rest of the global economy cleaning up the mess.

During the US Civil War that the North had better bullets which spiraled in flight – more precise at a greater distance, it wasn’t long before the South had them too, result more casualties and lost limbs on both sides

If we make unmanned systems to do our bidding, truly autonomous, it will not be long before our potential competitor deploys the same, robots killing individuals, and it only takes one unearned ego to pull the first trigger or one megalomaniac politician to make a no-win political impasse, so what is the word of caution; beware human if playing with fire!

What did Einstein say;

“You Cannot Simultaneously Prepare for and Stop War.”

What did Karl von Clausewitz say:

“Failure to Defend Your Nation Will Come at the Cost of Your Civilization.”

I hope you’ll please consider all of this.

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